tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13522238.post4278338816573821955..comments2024-03-14T11:50:14.761-04:00Comments on DarwinCatholic: COVID Death Statistics: Looking Back at 2020Darwinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08572976822786862149noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13522238.post-60413866311454636322021-01-10T17:50:14.539-05:002021-01-10T17:50:14.539-05:00While I totally agree that some of the perspective...While I totally agree that some of the perspectives and mandates that favor lockdowns and restrictions are ridiculous if not harmful (one of my personal favorites was an Instagram story last April that lambasted anyone who went outside and "breathed public air"), I suspect your remark, Darwin, that "making people aware of the virus and how it spreads [would've helped reduce spread]" is a bit optimistic. Even with pressure to cut back on gatherings, not to mention awareness of the virus and how it spreads, many of my friends are having full-blown weddings, parties, gatherings, etc., events that strike me (even as someone who is currently planning a wedding that will be affected by the pandemic) as pretty optional. Rightly or wrongly, everyone judges their own events--their wedding, their baby shower, their bible study, their annual trip to Cabo or whatever--as too important to cancel or change. I don't know what sensible and commonsense restrictions would've ruled out enough of these gatherings that it made a difference but not so many that people didn't react against them in roughly the way they have. <br /><br />I think public health policy is just tough because for it to be effective, masses of people have to get it, and for masses of people to get it, the policy has to be coarse enough that the gist of it can fit on a billboard. "Don't gather in large groups!" has a lot more impact than "Don't gather in large groups unless..." not because all gatherings are equally risky, but because if people operate under the latter, the policy's effectiveness depends not only on people remembering a fairly complicated message but also on their ability to apply the message adequately, an application which would require making a good judgement and having information (e.g. how many of your local hospital's ICU nurses are out of commission). That's a lot of moving parts when you consider the whole population.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13522238.post-14382578542296195272021-01-07T10:08:12.839-05:002021-01-07T10:08:12.839-05:00Ian,
Yeah, looking back 70k was a low number. At...Ian,<br /><br />Yeah, looking back 70k was a low number. At the time, the official number of COVID deaths was around 50k, and because they were all so recent (although I believe the first excess death analysis was being done on the Italian outbreak) it was hard to sort the data out yet and a fair number of people were claiming that there were in fact no incremental deaths, but that these were all people who would have died within a couple weeks anyway.<br /><br />I was rather less pessimistic in Mar-April. It seemed to me that if we were organized and successful in our response, we might keep the toll to 100-200k. Clearly, that didn't happen. Darwinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08572976822786862149noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13522238.post-35825408939034070582021-01-07T09:41:41.143-05:002021-01-07T09:41:41.143-05:00Mandamum,
Yeah, I would tend to think that the lo...Mandamum,<br /><br />Yeah, I would tend to think that the lower kid deaths are due to fewer accidents, which is the leading source of death for people under 18.<br /><br />Michael,<br /><br />I agree that there's a lot of room to criticize stupid and ineffectual lockdown attempts. I do think that reduced gatherings have reduced spread, but a lot of that can simply be achieved through making people aware of the virus and how it spreads, and by very simple and commonsense restrictions. Some of the restrictions have been stupid and have just fed conspiracy theories because they're so obviously ideological, false, or self-serving.<br /><br />My fire in this post is directed solely at the people who are still claiming that the virus itself is a fraud and that no one is actually dying of it.Darwinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08572976822786862149noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13522238.post-60763604185316406672021-01-06T23:43:24.927-05:002021-01-06T23:43:24.927-05:00I guess it depends too on what threshold of excess...I guess it depends too on what threshold of excess deaths one regards as significant. For example, if someone had told me last February that we would have 70k extra deaths in 2020 from Covid, I would have regarded that as fairly insignificant and would have wondered what all the fuss was about, especially in light of what was being predicted at the time. My own rather subjective thresholds were over ~500k/600k being a major event (and 1M being a disaster), and between ~200-600k being significant, but not earth-shattering (200k is approximately how many die from flu+pneumonia each year) - that's a range of very roughly, maybe 10-20% excess deaths or so. <br /><br />Back last February, and especially in April, I thought we would end up in the 500k range by the end of the year, so it has turned out to be not quite as bad as I had feared.<br /><br />William Briggs has done similar analysis to yours, scroll down to the section titled 'The Numbers':<br /><br />https://wmbriggs.com/post/34109/Ianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06302131576186856435noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13522238.post-50236462339793194762021-01-06T19:03:10.031-05:002021-01-06T19:03:10.031-05:00This is a good nuts-and-bolts analysis, though as ...This is a good nuts-and-bolts analysis, though as you note it would be nice to see more granular age data. However, I suspect you'd get the same 13-15% increase for each bracket, albeit with different baseline mortality rates.<br /><br />I enjoy a good conspiracy story as much as the next guy, but the loudest voices I've heard are not disputing the existence of virus mortality, but rather arguing against the heavy-handed and unevenly-applied lockdowns. What really rankles are stories such as the comic-book-store owner arrested for delivering online-orders, while Bezos balloons his marketshare, or cathedrals locked while shoppers mob costco. Then again, the cards were already stacked in that direction anyway; it has never been a good business proposition to open a restaurant. It all makes one so sad.Michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15706375351999428103noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13522238.post-51583586764272608022021-01-06T11:43:35.710-05:002021-01-06T11:43:35.710-05:00I wonder if that smaller kid number is perhaps lin...I wonder if that smaller kid number is perhaps linked to kids being more likely to die in accidents than from disease, so fewer driving-hours is probably directly linked to fewer kid deaths in car accidents? I wonder if it's just car related, or if other types of accidents have gone up or down....mandamumnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13522238.post-89593636547531539402021-01-05T21:23:48.574-05:002021-01-05T21:23:48.574-05:00Thank you! The smaller kid numbers is a pleasant s...Thank you! The smaller kid numbers is a pleasant surprise! I always appreciate a good look at the data.AmyRobynnehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13264454717815499514noreply@blogger.com