tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13522238.post3928241336847618184..comments2024-03-28T17:53:43.541-04:00Comments on DarwinCatholic: What Would a Collapse Look Like?Darwinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08572976822786862149noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13522238.post-35559546426975317342008-05-29T12:26:00.000-04:002008-05-29T12:26:00.000-04:00Henry,I like your post on Collapse.One of the thin...Henry,<BR/><BR/>I like your post on Collapse.<BR/><BR/>One of the things I've found annoying about Diamond both in this and in Guns, Germs and Steel is the extent to which he makes very modern assertions with out thinking about them, and often even without any sort of data, yet imbues them with a sort of absolute certainty.Darwinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08572976822786862149noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13522238.post-77629685188565230132008-05-28T12:41:00.000-04:002008-05-28T12:41:00.000-04:00I read Diamond's book last year, and my comment is...I read Diamond's book last year, and my comment is <A HREF="http://www.dieterichfamily.us/blog/?p=219" REL="nofollow">here</A>.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13522238.post-78761902724227726662008-05-26T21:44:00.000-04:002008-05-26T21:44:00.000-04:00Jim,I'm not sure I've researched the topic enough ...Jim,<BR/><BR/>I'm not sure I've researched the topic enough to have a strong opinion. I looked at the site you link to, and I've read a few articles on peak oil over the last couple years, but that's about the extent of my knowledge.<BR/><BR/>As a pricer, I'd say that the companies that pump and refine oil have a very, very strong incentive to price oil and moderate production according to the amount available, so my suspicion is that although we will at some point in the next 25 years hit an oil squeeze (not necessarily so much as a result of decreased production, as much as increases in demand far outstripping the increases in supply) and that the result is that oil prices will scale steadily, and thus provide an increasing incentive to develop other technology and switch to production/distribution methods (in everything from agriculture to manufacturing) that are less transportation intensive.<BR/><BR/>So I'm skeptical of the idea we'd hit a sudden oil shock wall and civilization would collapse. But I do think that we'll come under rapidly increasing economic pressure of the next fifty years to drastically reduce oil consumption or else transportation/petroleum products.<BR/><BR/>In the very long term, we will never be out of the boom/shock cycle until we're able to master fusion. That's how nature makes energy, and hydrogen is the most common element in the universe. Once we can do that, we'll be fine.Darwinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08572976822786862149noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13522238.post-77472656087205921622008-05-25T18:14:00.000-04:002008-05-25T18:14:00.000-04:00There is an article in the Statesman today about f...There is an article in the Statesman today about folks who believe a crisis is coming due to the peak oil theory. I checked out this web site a couple of weeks ago and I have to admit if this guy is right it sounds kind of plausible. What do you think?<BR/><BR/>http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Jim Janknegthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02971229049336038270noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13522238.post-55777952060106305492008-05-24T00:12:00.000-04:002008-05-24T00:12:00.000-04:00If you're listening on MP3:http://www.audiobooktre...If you're listening on MP3:<BR/>http://www.audiobooktreasury.com/free-audio-books.htm<BR/>http://www.audiobooksforfree.com/<BR/><BR/>I think you're right that the Cuba collapse is a better example-- although the USA would be better off, due to the large amounts of non-farmable land that is *perfect* for herd animals. (My folks run cattle on this every year--we'd have to have a smaller herd due to lack of hay-making ability, but there's be more open because hungry people aren't busy trying to wipe out the eeeeevil ranchers.)Foxfierhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10161683096247890834noreply@blogger.com