tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13522238.post4021345737455837172..comments2024-03-28T17:53:43.541-04:00Comments on DarwinCatholic: The Predictions GameDarwinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08572976822786862149noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13522238.post-55827887034338002142008-10-08T00:04:00.000-04:002008-10-08T00:04:00.000-04:00Whenever you have a large set of variable data, yo...Whenever you have a large set of variable data, you have to simplify it into a model, or be overwhelmed into paralysis. What you hope when you make such a model is that your simplification takes into account enough of the important stuff while glossing over mostly trivia.<BR/><BR/>It always seemed to me that the one thing you could be certain of about economic predictions is that they are always wrong. Useful economic predictions are only a little wrong, while lousy ones are way off the mark. But all are flawed and fall short of perfection (to paraphrase a bit).<BR/><BR/>On a tangent re the financial crisis, check out <A HREF="http://physicsbuzz.physicscentral.com/2008/10/blaming-physicists-for-crisis-on-wall.html" REL="nofollow"> a Physics Buzz article </A> on a claim of how physicists and mathmaticians are "to blame" for our current financial predicament.DMinorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10961244508260731087noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13522238.post-18232180360284210422008-10-07T14:18:00.000-04:002008-10-07T14:18:00.000-04:00I think it was statistician George Box who said, "...I think it was statistician George Box who said, "All models are wrong, but some models are useful."<BR/><BR/>If you've ever projected a regression line, you see how your confidence interval starts looking like a Venturi tube as you get farther away from your explanatory variables. It doesn't inspire much confidence, to say the least.<BR/><BR/>I do some simulation modeling in my research, and one of the things that strikes me is how easy it is to adjust the parameters and get a different result. Mind you, I'm simulating relatively stable, predictable things like personnel flows in the military. Imagine trying to do the same thing with highly dynamic and complex flows, like... say... the global climate.<BR/><BR/>I'm just sayin'...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com