tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13522238.post8931801948832237882..comments2024-03-28T17:53:43.541-04:00Comments on DarwinCatholic: Flu vs the CoronavirusDarwinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08572976822786862149noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13522238.post-11358593572655994182020-04-11T14:53:15.950-04:002020-04-11T14:53:15.950-04:00The WSJ has a good article titled Why Doesn't ...The WSJ has a good article titled Why Doesn't Flu Tank the Economy Like COVID-19, if you have access Published 4/10.Juliahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06668252458131596362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13522238.post-72923356816338524372020-04-02T23:28:54.335-04:002020-04-02T23:28:54.335-04:00You might find this good reading:
https://medium.c...You might find this good reading:<br />https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-out-of-many-one-36b886af37e9Juliahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06668252458131596362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13522238.post-25043855373568209132020-03-30T17:42:38.475-04:002020-03-30T17:42:38.475-04:00Julia,
Good points. I stuck with graphing deaths...Julia,<br /><br />Good points. I stuck with graphing deaths and hospitalizations in the post because they seemed a bit more objective and some people have been spinning elaborate scenarios about how many un-detected cases there might actually be. <br /><br />I hope you guys are all doing well and staying safe!<br /><br />Anon,<br /><br />I take your point. Ohio, where we live, is also not a hot zone, though Gov. DeWine and his health department have been taking lots of measures to see that things stay that way.<br /><br />Even so, the weekly deaths are climbing in a way that is worrying compared to flu. For instance, it looks like Georgia had 55 deaths in the just completed week versus 14 in the week before that. For comparison, it looks like the CDC shows around 7 deaths a week over the last three reported weeks from flu and around 65 deaths a week from pneumonia. So it's already almost as bad as flu and pneumonia, and if the number of cases each day are a leading indicator, it may be worse soon. <br /><br />It does sound hopeful, however, that areas which are overall less dense are more resistant to the spread of the disease. If we end up with a dozen urban hot spots around the country and the others not as hard hit, the rest of the country will be able to help the hard hit areas.Darwinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08572976822786862149noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13522238.post-48845071339436167552020-03-29T21:46:21.076-04:002020-03-29T21:46:21.076-04:00It's also worth noting that in most of the US ...It's also worth noting that in most of the US (and most of the world), COVID-19 is panning out to be far less severe than the flu. In Georgia, for instance, cases are still growing exponentially (as testing grows exponentially), but the death rate hasn't grown in over 2 weeks (despite only getting serious about social distancing in the past week or so), and the deaths are hovering around (still tragic, but negligible in a population of 10 million) 10 per day. <br /><br />It seems we should focus our efforts on understanding the combination of factors that have led to disaster in Italy, Iran, Spain, and New York City.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13522238.post-81584276346390564372020-03-29T14:19:55.330-04:002020-03-29T14:19:55.330-04:00Commenting from NYC here, where another statistic ...Commenting from NYC here, where another statistic is staring us in the face: people fixate on the fact that only 20% of cases are serious. However, that needs a bit more definition. Last week 15% of cases required hospitalization. The reported death rate would be many, many percentage points higher without the infrastructure to support people for 10-25 days on ventilators or oxygen. <br /><br />Granted, that's not 15% of all cases, because NYC will not test unless you are a) famous or b) have significant preconditions that put you at high risk (my 21yo's lab mate has an immunodeficiency disorder and was tested), or c) are already in such bad shape that you are probably in need of hospitalization. Hence the actual incidence of COVID-19 is probably at least 1/3 higher. But the frequency of serious illness is high enough that a group of friends and I discussed the possibility yesterday of setting up a Google spreadsheet to keep track of prayer requests.Juliahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06668252458131596362noreply@blogger.com