Because most philosophies that frown on reproduction don't survive.

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Time Tunnel Politics

Every so often I go back and check to see how this year's candidates are doing compared to how Romney and Obama were doing at the same time of year in 2012.

There's a narrative going around that Romney was a push-over candidate, a designated loser who didn't have the fire to go after actually winning the race. On Sept. 20, 2012 he was going through a rough period, trailing Obama by three points in the Real Clear Politics average of polls.

The supposedly virile Donald Trump is reputed to have had a great couple weeks, harping on Hillary Clinton's health and exploiting stupid remarks she made about the 'irredeamable' people who are 'deplorables' that support her opponent. As a result, Trump is producing some of his best polling ever. His support only reached this high before during the week after the GOP convention.

And yet, it's worth noting that Trump (at 44% support) is actually polling 1.2% lower than Romney (45.2%) was at this time four years ago.  Trump has less support now than Romney did at virtually any time after getting the 2012 nomination.  The only reason why Trump looks remotely good is that Hillary is a full 3% less popular than Obama was at this time in 2012.


Patrick said...

The location of the votes is also quite different this year. One of Trumps worst demographic--minorities--are concentrated in blue states, while his bread and butter--college free whites--are concentrated in swing states.

Five thirty-eight ran a story that basically said a nationwide tie vote in 2012 would have yielded a clear Obama win, where one this year is likely to go Trump.

In Russet Shadows said...

Good point. It was really the second debate that did Romney in. If he had stayed on the attack, he would have been president.