Because most philosophies that frown on reproduction don't survive.

Monday, February 04, 2008

A Quick Political Prediction

Heading into the Super Tuesday primaries, my prediction (probably not a very original one) is:

On the Republican side McCain comes close to a clean sweep and pretty much makes nomination inevitable. Here's hoping he follows up on that by re-assuring the base by taking a solidly conservative VP. One hears noise about Brownback, which would be great from my point of view. I don't love McCain, but I'm not sure anyone else still in the field is better, and he's the only one making much noise about bringing back some desperately needed fiscal responsibility.

On the Democratic side, Hillary wins most states, but not by an overwhelming margin. Obama carries his home state and perhaps one or two others. The day ends with Hillary ahead, but Obama still viable with a somewhat healthy delegate count and the increasing support of the party leadership. It seems like there's the possibility of a rather sticky situation there, as the activists/leadership seem to universally want Obama (not only because he's a great speaker, but also because it increasingly looks like Hillary would be an instant loser against McCain) and yet Hillary keeps winning more delegates. No idea how that sorts out in the end.

9 comments:

Anthony said...

I will continue to dive into the breach and support Ron Paul. The complete rejection he's received from the "mainstream" is truly breathtaking.

barbfromcincy said...

I hear that McCain is anti-gun rights...not a very popular viewpoint with my father and husband. Have you heard anything differently? He also doesn't seem to be strongly pro-life.

Big Tex said...

I would say that McCain isn't the only one stumping for fiscal responsibility. See .

Big Tex said...

Argh! My link was dropped. Grr...

http://www.ronpaul2008.com/issues/debt-and-taxes/

Darwin said...

On Ron Paul: I see the attraction of some of his proposals, but I guess I don't see the attraction as going beyond the intellectual. I can't imagine that, even if somehow elected, he could make much of any of that happen at this time. McCain's fiscal responsibility is minor league by comparison, but it seems achievable. Also, Paul strikes me as nutty on foreign policy issues.

Donald R. McClarey said...

Although I will vote for Romney tommorrow in Illinois, he is toast and McCain will be the nominee. I will grit my teeth and vote for him in the Fall.

Super Tuesday will not settle matters for the Dems, which will probably be good news for the Republicans. After a long and grueling contest I think Clinton will be the nominee, although I expect she will alienate a fair number of Obama supporters along the way.

She will probably offer him the Veep spot. If he is smart he will decline it, pray that she is beaten in the Fall and begin preparing for 2012. This election has a strange feel of 1976 about it, with Clinton being Ford to Obama's Reagan.

Big Tex said...

I'm not so sure what you find "nutty" about Rn Paul's foreign policy. Care to elaborate?

Darwin said...

Tex,

On specifics:

-I think he's wrong to imagine that dropping our support for Israel and pulling our troops out of places like Kuwait and Quatar would make us cease to be a target for radical Islamic terrorists.

-I think pulling out of Iraq quickly would cause far more trouble than it would avoid.

-I suspect that "nation building" in Afghanistan is at this point far more effective in keeping al Qaeda down than going after him directly -- especially if that means visibly invading Pakistani soil. (I suspect that we're already invisibly on it.)

More generally:

Perhaps this is lingering Buchanan-phobia, but I distrust his strong emphasis on avoiding "foreign entanglements". Much as I respect Pres. Washington's advice, I fear that the horse he sought to contain left the barn about a hundred years ago, and I'm afraid that radically pulling back on our foreign commitments at this point would cause far more harm than good.

Jim said...

I will be going to my caucus tonight. I predict that Obama comes out the winner in my home state of Kansas and with an edge overall. But I also predicted that KU would beat KSU at KSU last week.