Not Many Like Us

There are no more seats in the van. We bought it six years ago, when our third was an infant, and it seemed to have unimaginable amounts of room, as well as really cool seats that fold down flat into the floor. We loved it. We still like it well enough, but now every seat is full: seven seats, two adults, five kids. No room. That in and of itself can be a little frustrating. If we want to bring one of MrsDarwin's siblings or parents on a trip, we need to bring two vehicles. And with the smallest one getting close to two, you have to figure that one of these days... (And as for fighting in the back seat, it is never ending.)

So I found myself starting to look at full size vans the other day. Sure, there is the Suburban which has six seats in the back, and so do some minivans, but if I'm going to have to replace our van, I don't want to be out of room again as soon as we add one more. It's time for a full size. And I have to admit that I'm dreading it a bit. I prefer small cars. Preferably small fast cars, though you wouldn't know it from the cars I actually own at the moment. And a full size van is neither small nor fast.

Nor, I find, are they primarily marketed to consumers. They're primarily marketed to businesses. The answer, it turns out, is easily found in the handy "how many families are like yours" calculator that was being passed around last year.

This informs me that there are 205,172 households in the US consisting of a married couple and five children under 18. 0.18% of US households. Ah, but we still fit in our van. When we outgrow the van (I suppose I should say if, for one never knows, though it seems highly likely to happen eventually) we will enter an even smaller demographic: 58,747 households consisting of a married couple and six children under 18. 0.05% of US households. I'm told that the full size van market in the US over the last decade averages a little over 200,000 new vehicles sold per year, so it's pretty obvious that most customers are businesses, not families.

Maybe if we change our name to Hyatt or Marriott we could get a van with our name on it?

Buying A Car To Save Money

Cars that get over 40 miles per gallon in fuel efficiency are, reportedly, becoming all the rage, with more models from American and foreign car makers being introduced at the latest Detroit Auto Show.

So I got curious, having just started a 18-mile-each-way commute, what exactly are the savings one can achieve by buying a more fuel efficient car? I assumed a situation faily like mine: My car is paid for and costs me only minimal maintenance to keep up (a 14-year-old Toyota Camry) and a 20 mile each way commute.

Say you're considering buying a new car which gets 40mpg for $20,000. That seems moderately standard for these cars. Assume a 40 mile daily round trip commute, and an additional 40 miles of weekend or additional driving. Assuming a current care actual efficiency of 20mpg. Assume the price of gas goes up to $4/gal. How long would it take for you to make up the cost of that new car in fuel savings?

I calculated savings as follows:

(([Daily Commute]/[Old MPG])-([Daily Commute]/[New MPG])) x [Price of Gas]) = Daily Gas Savings

[Cost of New Car]/([Daily Savings] x 6 x 52) = Years to make up cost of car

How long would it take? 16 years.

Then I decided to go at it the other way. What changes would allow me to pay off the expense of a new car in gas savings over a normal financial window of five years?

- If the cost of a new car gets below $6,500
- If the cost of gas goes over $12/gal
- I tried coming up with an increased MPG efficiency answer, but it's impossible. Even if you could get 100,000 MPG, it would still take eight years (assuming gas prices of $4/gal) to pay off the expense of a new $20k car via gas savings. If you assume a 100MPG car and seek for the gas price which get you to break even in five years, you need a gas price of $8 per gallon.
-If you vary the length of commute, a 130 mile daily commute (assuming 780 miles per week of driving total) would allow a $20k car to pay for itself in gas savings in five years with gas prices of only $4/gal.