Change Election

I used to post a lot here about politics. (These days, I pretty much don't post at all, yet here we are.) That mostly stopped ten years ago in 2016. I found myself increasingly without a tribe, but also having to admit that while I had opinions I did not have any particular expertise about what worked in politics. But we've just had a significant election, and so it's time for a post about politics. Consider yourself warned and do not feel obligated to read it if you find you'd think better of me (or of your day) if you didn't.

I have been a conservative my entire life, someone who was often frustrated that the elites of the GOP did not seem to follow through on the beliefs they claimed to espouse. And yet, when Trump managed to sweep his way to the nomination in 2016, despite what I saw as grave defects in his character and his policies, I became a somewhat estranged Republican. I had said that the GOP would never win with Trump and those like him on the ticket. I was wrong, and they did win in 2016. And despite intermediate defeats (most notably on in 2020 when Trump lost and behaved disgracefully afterwards) the MAGA movement continued to win nominations and often enough elections. And year by year they drove the kind of politicians I could respect, people who cared about conservative policy and also about behaving like responsible and honorable leaders, out of the party Given enough time most movements become convinced of their invincibility and become more extreme and more corrupt. We saw it on the left where past excesses led to losses to the right in 2016 and 2024. Now we've seen it on the right where a combination of terrible choices (a poorly chosen and poorly executed war and trade policies which have driven up prices, and an intentionally and needlessly destructive approach to immigration enforcement which alienated a number of the people who voted for it) have resulted in a massive defeat for the Republican Party. You would think that this would lead to some soul searching, but at least a part of the MAGA coalition is simply digging in deeper, insisting that their problem is that they haven't gone far enough. It's not their fault, they claim. It's the fault of the neo-cons and libertarians who forced the Iran War and the continued inflation on them. President Trump seems to be of this faction, having just pushed out Susie Wiles as his chief of staff and put in Stephen Miller. Enough already. Ten years in, the MAGA movement (and the administration) is run almost exclusively by those who have committed themselves entirely to Trump and his movement. Pete Hegseth and Stephen Miller don't agree on everything, but one thing that absolutely ties them together is that they would not be hired by any other Republican administration. Even those from the before times who have held on and survived, like Marco Rubio, have done so by giving over significant portions of themselves to whatever positions Trump tells them are the current party line. But I think arguing policies at this time reads the moment wrong. The massive, cross-state repudiation of the current GOP seems to be more about how the GOP acts than about what it does. From the beginning, one of the key criticisms of Trump has been about his poor character. His insults, his bullying, his lechery, his inability to take a loss like a man, and his basic incompetence at doing most things other than being a reality TV star. Many on the left seemed to mis-read this as what ordinary voters liked about Trump. And unfortunately, many among Trump's movement did as well. The lesson many aspiring MAGA politicians and inflluencers seemed to take was that the bad behavior was the point. And so concluding that the American people liked their politicians to behave badly, they behaved badly too. Behaving badly was promoted as authenticity and telling it like it is. But Trump's imitators do not have the celebrity and humor that have made Trump successful with those who support him. Nor do they come by it honestly. In Trump's odd power of positive thinking, he seems to believe most of what he says, while his imitators mostly operate through contempt. When JD Vance claimed that Haitian immigrants were eating cats and dogs, it was pretty clear he didn't believe any such thing. It's just that he thinks most of his base voters are dumb enough (or bad enough) to believe that kind of thing. Add to that a generous helping of candidates who just incredibly lousy candidates (Dr Oz, Herschel Walker, Kari Lake, Paxton, Vivek) whom the MAGA movement seems to be convinced the rubes can be made to vote for just by telling them that Trump endorses them. And then a contempt for the overall democratic process -- from gerrymandering, which is a blatant grab for more seats without having to try to win voters' support, to junk lawsuits and prosecutions -- which again seems rooted in a contempt for the voters and the republic. At a certain point, all this just becomes an awful lot to bear. Perhaps the vast non-political middle could ignore such things if the economy was healthy and all seemed to be going well, but gas and other prices rising and unsettlingly rapid technological change on the horizon with AI, enough people seem to have become tired enough of the antics to take notice. And so the voters just handed the Democrats a massive electoral victory, even while at the same time polls show only 39% of Americans having a favorable view of the Democratic Party. Politics tends to move in cycles: The JFK/LBJ era, the Nixon era, the Reagan era, the Clinton era, the George W Bush era, the Obama era, and then the Trump era which somehow ran simultaneously with the self destructive Woke era on the left and the shambolic Biden presidency which probably does not deserve an era since it appears more like an interglacial pause within the Trump presidency. It's worth thinking about these different eras, and how none of them lasted over 12 years. It's also worth noting (as people talk about how the GOP could never win again in the foreseeable future) how quickly reversals have occurred. Nixon won 49 states in 1972, and was ejected from the presidency in unpopularity and disgrace less than two years later. In 1976 it seemed like the GOP was in for a long time in the wilderness, only for Reagan to win 44 states four years later in 1980. And on and on. Remember Bush's permanent majority? And Obama's permanent majority after that? There's no going back in life. If the Republican party puts together a winning coalition again in the coming years it will not be the same as in 2004, nor should it be. But one thing I don't believe that the GOP can afford anymore is to promote despite (or sometimes seemingly because of) incompetence, offensiveness, and corruption. There is a balance to be found between the current "trigger the libs" ethic in which being offensive is itself seen as a virtue and the "you can't say that" HR-lady ethic which dominated too much of elite culture until a couple years ago. Different times call for different parties. Back in the 90s and early 2000s, people sometimes talked about the Democrats as the soft hearted and indulgent "mom party" and the more hard nosed and financially practical GOP as the "dad party". Over the last ten years, the Republicans have too often been more of a crazy divorced uncle party. As we face the immanent demographic reconning with Social Security and Medicare, and also the need to find a productive economy in which we still build things during the rapid changes related to technology and changing global trade networks, the crazy uncle is increasingly not going to get it done. Nor does increasingly driving college educated professionals out of the base seem like a long term success strategy.

I hope that new leadership will arise and succeed in finding the right new direction. What we do not need is more of the same.

In the Shadow of the Past

 

A neolithic long barrow in England

One of the more unfamiliar things in Tolkien's Lord of the Rings is that it is in most senses taking place in an era which is less glorious, less populated, and less sophisticated than the same region had been hundreds and indeed thousands of years before.

This is not a way that we as modern people are used to thinking about the past.  And to make it odder, some of the features that Tolkien uses are ones which we are familiar with but think of as belonging to more primitive people in the distant past.

In the "Fog on the Barrow Downs" chapter of Fellowship of the Ring (and to a great extent again in the Paths of the Dead in Return of the King) characters encounter ancient features which seem similar to the megalithic monuments (including barrows) in England, with which Tolkien himself would have been familiar.  (There are also barrows, mounds, and other megalithic structures on the continent.)

In our world, the barrows were built in two waves.  The long barrows (like the one above) were build by Neolithic farmers in the centuries around 3500 BC.  These peoples has no written language, did not work metal, did not have the wheel, and buried their dead with artifacts such as tools made from antlers and polished stone axes.  

Then, more than thousand years later, the Bronze Age peoples who had almost completely replaced Britain's Neolithic inhabitants built round barrows in which they buried their elite dead with offerings that included gold jewelry, bronze daggers, etc.

Somewhat similar, though not exactly barrows, the Anglo Saxons who lived in Britain in the period after the collapse of the Roman Empire sometimes buried their dead under mounds or in whole buried ships.

So several different cultures had burials which resembled the barrows in Tolkien, but what they all had in common was that they were much more primitive in their culture and technology than the medieval to early modern material culture which seems to predominate in Tolkien's Middle Earth at the time of Lord of the Ring.

The grave goods which the Hobbits find in the barrow are from the Numenorean kingdom of Cardolan, a subset of the older and larger realm of Arnor where Isildur had ruled.  It was from that kingdom, which has fought against the forces of the Witch King of Angmar, that the dagger which Merry takes into battle came.  And, in the end, it achieves the purpose it was made for 1500+ years before when Merry stabs the Witch King with it in the Battle of Pelennor Fields.

Unlike the Anglo Saxons in England, much less the Bronze Age or Neolithic peoples thousands of years before, the kingdom of Cardolan seems to have been more populated and more sophisticated than the inhabitants of Middle Earth we see in Lord of the Rings.  And they, in turn, were fewer in number and less in power than the men of Gondor and Arnor in the time of the Last Alliance between Elves and Men another 1400 years before, when Elendil and his sons Isildur and Anarion fought against Sauron in alliance with Gil-galad.

So in Middle Earth, the contents of the barrows are remnants of a more glorious, more populated, more powerful time, as are monuments we see such as the giant Argonath statues or other relics of the past such as the Palantir "seeing stones".

Now, two things are worth noting, before I go further, just in the interest of showing all the complications.  

First, it's dubious to talk about the different eras of Middle Earth as being more or less "advanced" in the sense of technology, in that Tolkien is fundamentally not dealing with a technological era.  Some elements of this can be a bit odd.  In some ways the Hobbits seem quite advanced, with their mill and vaguely 17th or 18th century vibe.  But really Middle Earth is not a place of technology.  The only person who seems bent on technology as an advancement is Saruman, and his fixation on this is not a good sign when it comes to his moral character.

Second, although the grave goods in the barrows and the most recently buried people there are Numenoreans from the kingdom of Cardolan, in the appendices it is briefly mentioned that many of the barrows were originally built long before in the First Age by the Edain, the first peoples who would become the ancestors of the Numenoreans, before they even crossed the Blue Mountains into the west and met the Elves to become involved in the great war against Morgoth. But although the Edain are clearly a long time ago, I don't think that Tolkien would necessarily think of them as primitive in the way that Neolithic peoples were or perhaps even Bronze Age peoples.

But leaving aside these details, I think it is fair to say as an overall point that in Tolkien the characters in Lord of the Rings are living in a period which is lesser in almost every way than 1600 years ago and indeed than 3000 years ago.  They are truly living in the shadow of the past.

This is very much not how we think of ourselves today.  We reflexively think of the past as being more primitive, poorer, less populated, and that is because for us, it is.  And not only for us.  For 500 years or more the path of progress has seemed self evident and it is a path which seem to slope inexorably upward.

However, this is not how all places and times have seen things, and it has not aways been an accurate way to see things.

The Ancient Greeks, especially the early authors such as Homer and Hesiod, seem to have thought of themselves as living in a diminished age, a lesser one than the ages of the gods and of heroes, which had come before.  

Homer says:

"Few are the sons and heirs who can measure up to their fathers;

Most are the worse by far, and few are those who can best them."

Odyssey, Book II, 276-277 (Daniel Mendelsohn translation)

And Hesiod draws out a whole schema of decline in Works & Days (starting at line 110): 

First in the time when Cronos ruled, there was the Golden race of mortal men, and they "liked like gods without sorrow of heart, remote and free from toil and grief: miserable age rested not on them...  They dwelt in ease and peace upon their lands with many good things, rich in flocks and loved by the blessed gods." (Evelyn-White translation)

Then after this first race of mortal men died out, the gods made "a second generation which was silver and less noble by far."  They were foolish as children, and lived only a little time in their prime "and that in sorrow because of their foolishness, for they could not keep from sinning and from wrongong one another."

Zeus becomes angry and gets rid of that generation because they do not honor the gods, and so after them came a third race: "a brazen race, sprung from ash trees; and it was in no way equal to the silver age but was terrible and strong. They loved the lamentable works of Ares and deeds of violence."

After these men of the bronze era died out, another race was made by the gods, "which was nobler and more righteous, a god-like race of hero-men who are called demi-gods, the race before our own."  These, Hesiod says, are the men who fought over Thebes with Oedipus, who fought the Trojan War over Helen, and inhabited other stories.  

But this race of men died out as well, leaving behind the fifth age of men, among which Hesiod unhappily numbers himself, "would that I were not among the men of the fifth generation, but either had died before or been born afterwards.  For now truly is a race of iron, and men never rest from labour and sorrow by day and from perishing by night."

So Hesiod, sees himself as living in the lowest and worst age of men.

I don't think Tolkien exactly sees the end of the Third Age of Middle Earth in this light, but you could see certain similarities.  The early days of Gondor and Arnor under Elendil were far greater than the later days of the divided kingdoms, and those days were greater than the time in which Frodo, Sam, and Aragorn live.  But even Elendil's time was a diminished time compared to the high age of Numenor, before it fell.

But I don't think Tolkien simply sees it as decline (and in general he didn't draw much of Greek mythology.)  I think in Tolkien's world, there's also an element of the Christian idea of the Fall.

There's not precisely an Adam and Eve story in Middle Earth that we know of, but there is the fall of Melkor which brings evil into the world, and both the Elves and Men are clearly fallen beings who can be turned to evil and are frequently subject to temptations to pride, greed, wrath, etc.

The high Numenorians were higher in part because they were closer to the angelic Valar.  They lived within sight of the blessed lands. And their descendants have diminished in part because since the fall of Numenor, which was a Fall in the Christian sense because it was effectively a rebellion against God's order, the later generations are living further and further from the memory of seeing and living near the Blessed Lands.

So in some sense, the age of Lord of the Rings is the most fallen period -- at least, the longest since anyone could remember the time before the Fall.  (It's more complicated than this, even, because clearly the men before the war against Melkor were even then fallen, but there's some sense in which the era of Numenor was less fallen that the times before and after, even though it was not an Edenic time.)

But this is not a one-way diminishment.  While there's no real talk of it in LotR, I think in Tolkien's mind there was still the clear expectation that at some point the world would be redeemed, and so it would at some point become less fallen through being in closer contact with the Redeemer.  

In some sense, we're seeing a diminished world in LotR because we're seeing that low point between when humans were still in touch with the angelic world of the Valar, and the point when Iluvitar's plan comes to its full fruition in a way which even the Valar to not understand and cannot predict.

In the particular time of LotR, however, there is a similarity of the view of Hesiod:  People are less virtuous (further from the Blessed Realm).  They are shorter lived, less heroic, suffer more just to get by, and do not do the great deeds of before.  They are more in the power of the world, rather than having power over it.

It's key to note: none of this really has to do with technological progress one way or the other.  The age in which Frodo lives is not higher technology than the era 3000 years before when Elendil and Gil-galad fought Sauron (or the ages long before that when Elves and Men fought Melkor.)  Nor was that past age higher in technology.  The ages of Middle Earth, like the ages of Hesiod, are not really defined by technological progress (an alien concept to him) but rather by heroism and by the degree to which people were in connection with the divine powers and the degree to which people were in tune with the world rather than subject to its ravages.

This is why the pre-history of LotR is so little like how we ourselves think about pre-history.  (Side note: I'd love to have some idea how Tolkien thought about pre-history in our own world.)  When the Hobbits encounter the barrows in which warriors and rulers were buried 1600 years before, they are not seeing the relics of "less advanced" civilization. Indeed, they are in some ways seeing the relics of a more advanced civilization, but a civilization more advanced on a different axis than technology. 

Novena for Order 2026, Day 9

 

Last day of the novena! My life is ordered about as well as it can be right now -- my show is on track, and the pieces are coming together. (And you're coming together, right? Get your tickets for Anastasia next weekend!)

My intention is out of my hands, and will be granted if it's God will. I have my own ideas of the ideal way for God's will to play out, but how do I know? I can only see the threads on the back of the tapestry. If they're crossed or cut, it's for the greater beauty and order of the whole design. "At present we see indistinctly, as in a mirror, but then face to face. At present I know partially; then I shall know fully, as I am fully known." (1 Cor. 13:12)

For Ordering a Life Wisely

St. Thomas Aquinas

O merciful God, grant that I may
desire ardently,
search prudently,
recognize truly,
and bring to perfect completion
whatever is pleasing to You
for the praise and glory of Your name.

Put my life in good order, O my God.

Grant that I may know
what You require me to do.

Bestow upon me
the power to accomplish your will,
as is necessary and fitting
for the salvation of my soul.

Grant to me, O Lord my God,
that I may not falter in times
of prosperity or adversity,
so that I may not be exalted in the former,
nor dejected in the latter.

May I not rejoice in anything
unless it leads me to You;
may I not be saddened by anything
unless it turns me from You.

May I desire to please no one,
nor fear to displease anyone,
but You.

May all transitory things, O Lord,
be worthless to me
and may all things eternal
be ever cherished by me.

May any joy without You
be burdensome for me
and may I not desire anything else
besides You.

May all work, O Lord
delight me when done for Your sake.
and may all repose not centered in You
be ever wearisome for me.

Grant unto me, my God,
that I may direct my heart to You
and that in my failures
I may ever feel remorse for my sins
and never lose the resolve to change.

O Lord my God, make me
submissive without protest,
poor without discouragement,
chaste without regret,
patient without complaint,
humble without posturing,
cheerful without frivolity,
mature without gloom,
and quick-witted without flippancy.

O Lord my God, let me
fear You without losing hope,
be truthful without guile,
do good works without presumption,
rebuke my neighbor without haughtiness,
and -- without hypocrisy --
strengthen him by word and example.

Give to me, O Lord God,
a watchful heart,
which no capricious thought
can lure away from You.

Give to me,
a noble heart,
which no unworthy desire can debase.

Give to me
a resolute heart,
which no evil intention can divert.

Give to me
a stalwart heart,
which no tribulation can overcome.

Give to me
a temperate heart,
which no violent passion can enslave.

Give to me, O Lord my God,
understanding of You,
diligence in seeking You,
wisdom in finding You,
discourse ever pleasing to You,
perseverance in waiting for You,
and confidence in finally embracing You.

Grant
that with Your hardships
I may be burdened in reparation here,
that Your benefits
I may use in gratitude upon the way,
that in Your joys
I may delight by glorifying You
in the Kingdom of Heaven.

You Who live and reign,
God, world without end.

Amen.

translation by Robert Anderson and Johann Moser
from The Aquinas Prayer Book

Novena for Order 2026, Day 8

 "Wow!" I thought. "The rare novena where I haven't yet missed a day!" I thought. And yet I didn't really miss yesterday. I said the prayer, at 11:58 pm (resolutely avoiding looking at the Spelling Bee, which I also had not meditated on all day).

And yet yesterday was a day of answered prayers, though not yet the particular intention of my Novena. I woke up in the morning still conflicted over a sensitive decision I, like the centurion under authority and yet in authority over others, had to make as soon as possible. "Jesus," I begged, "send your Spirit on me and tell me what to do." And within five minutes I was filled with certainty about my course of action, with the whole chain of reasoning laid out for me, even down to the specific wording. 

Why should this surprise me? I asked, and I received. I knocked, and the door was opened to me. I asked in faith and in charity, not to spend it on my passions (James 4:3). And still I was surprised when my prayer was answered, directly, unambiguously. O ye of little faith.

For Ordering a Life Wisely

St. Thomas Aquinas

O merciful God, grant that I may
desire ardently,
search prudently,
recognize truly,
and bring to perfect completion
whatever is pleasing to You
for the praise and glory of Your name.

Put my life in good order, O my God.

Grant that I may know
what You require me to do.

Bestow upon me
the power to accomplish your will,
as is necessary and fitting
for the salvation of my soul.

Grant to me, O Lord my God,
that I may not falter in times
of prosperity or adversity,
so that I may not be exalted in the former,
nor dejected in the latter.

May I not rejoice in anything
unless it leads me to You;
may I not be saddened by anything
unless it turns me from You.

May I desire to please no one,
nor fear to displease anyone,
but You.

May all transitory things, O Lord,
be worthless to me
and may all things eternal
be ever cherished by me.

May any joy without You
be burdensome for me
and may I not desire anything else
besides You.

May all work, O Lord
delight me when done for Your sake.
and may all repose not centered in You
be ever wearisome for me.

Grant unto me, my God,
that I may direct my heart to You
and that in my failures
I may ever feel remorse for my sins
and never lose the resolve to change.

O Lord my God, make me
submissive without protest,
poor without discouragement,
chaste without regret,
patient without complaint,
humble without posturing,
cheerful without frivolity,
mature without gloom,
and quick-witted without flippancy.

O Lord my God, let me
fear You without losing hope,
be truthful without guile,
do good works without presumption,
rebuke my neighbor without haughtiness,
and -- without hypocrisy --
strengthen him by word and example.

Give to me, O Lord God,
a watchful heart,
which no capricious thought
can lure away from You.

Give to me,
a noble heart,
which no unworthy desire can debase.

Give to me
a resolute heart,
which no evil intention can divert.

Give to me
a stalwart heart,
which no tribulation can overcome.

Give to me
a temperate heart,
which no violent passion can enslave.

Give to me, O Lord my God,
understanding of You,
diligence in seeking You,
wisdom in finding You,
discourse ever pleasing to You,
perseverance in waiting for You,
and confidence in finally embracing You.

Grant
that with Your hardships
I may be burdened in reparation here,
that Your benefits
I may use in gratitude upon the way,
that in Your joys
I may delight by glorifying You
in the Kingdom of Heaven.

You Who live and reign,
God, world without end.

Amen.

translation by Robert Anderson and Johann Moser
from The Aquinas Prayer Book

Novena for Order 2026, Day 6

The young folk here have been acquiring full-time jobs, either summer gigs or the starts of careers, and they've been getting up with the birds. As a result, we've shifted into more of a morning mode than we've ever had before. The other day, I saw a sunrise -- I don't know even know who I am anymore. 

My Liturgy of the Hours book is on a table by an armchair in the living room, and after various kids leave for work, I sit down and pray the Office of Readings. Why don't I say Morning Prayer? Is it a rebellion against the morning? Do I need the novelty of different readings everyday, as opposed to the cyclical regularity of the Psalms? 

Or does it matter? I don't know that it does.

For Ordering a Life Wisely

St. Thomas Aquinas

O merciful God, grant that I may
desire ardently,
search prudently,
recognize truly,
and bring to perfect completion
whatever is pleasing to You
for the praise and glory of Your name.

Put my life in good order, O my God

Grant that I may know
what You require me to do.

Bestow upon me
the power to accomplish your will,
as is necessary and fitting
for the salvation of my soul.

Grant to me, O Lord my God,
that I may not falter in times
of prosperity or adversity,
so that I may not be exalted in the former,
nor dejected in the latter.

May I not rejoice in anything
unless it leads me to You;
may I not be saddened by anything
unless it turns me from You.

May I desire to please no one,
nor fear to displease anyone,
but You.

May all transitory things, O Lord,
be worthless to me
and may all things eternal
be ever cherished by me.

May any joy without You
be burdensome for me
and may I not desire anything else
besides You.

May all work, O Lord
delight me when done for Your sake.
and may all repose not centered in You
be ever wearisome for me.

Grant unto me, my God,
that I may direct my heart to You
and that in my failures
I may ever feel remorse for my sins
and never lose the resolve to change.

O Lord my God, make me
submissive without protest,
poor without discouragement,
chaste without regret,
patient without complaint,
humble without posturing,
cheerful without frivolity,
mature without gloom,
and quick-witted without flippancy.

O Lord my God, let me
fear You without losing hope,
be truthful without guile,
do good works without presumption,
rebuke my neighbor without haughtiness,
and -- without hypocrisy --
strengthen him by word and example.

Give to me, O Lord God,
a watchful heart,
which no capricious thought
can lure away from You.

Give to me,
a noble heart,
which no unworthy desire can debase.

Give to me
a resolute heart,
which no evil intention can divert.

Give to me
a stalwart heart,
which no tribulation can overcome.

Give to me
a temperate heart,
which no violent passion can enslave.

Give to me, O Lord my God,
understanding of You,
diligence in seeking You,
wisdom in finding You,
discourse ever pleasing to You,
perseverance in waiting for You,
and confidence in finally embracing You.

Grant
that with Your hardships
I may be burdened in reparation here,
that Your benefits
I may use in gratitude upon the way,
that in Your joys
I may delight by glorifying You
in the Kingdom of Heaven.

You Who live and reign,
God, world without end.

Amen.

translation by Robert Anderson and Johann Moser
from The Aquinas Prayer Book