Because most philosophies that frown on reproduction don't survive.

Wednesday, August 01, 2007

"Do you hear that sound, Mr. Anderson?

That is the sound of inevitability." --Agent Smith, The Matrix

It seems like with every passing week I hear more often that it is inevitable that Hillary will win the Democratic nomination, and then win the presidency. I suppose that not everyone sees Hillary as Eva Peron and Delores Umbridge rolled into one unappealing package. I guess on this one I'm like the lady who famously said of Nixon's election: "I don't know how it happened. No one I know voted for him."

Part of me keeps hoping that nominating Hillary would be another example of the Democrat's inability to understand what would actually appeal to the half of the country not already in their interest group. Kerry was nominated pretty much strictly on the grounds of his "electability", which turned out not to be quite the force it was imagined to be.

And yet, the Republicans are seeming about as tone deaf this time around as when they presented us with the Dole/Kemp ticket. Indeed, I feel like I get some of the same, "Oh well, we're not going to win this one," vibe from people this time around as I did in '96.

All of which is rather too many words to say: I'm not relishing what I see coming up for the '08 elections.

7 comments:

Donald R. McClarey said...

"Oh well, we're not going to win this one," vibe from people this time around as I did in '96."

I think it all depends on Thompson. If he is an effective campaigner he could rally the Republicans and perhaps hand the Democrats an unexpected defeat next year. If he is not a good campaigner, I think it may very well be a very long year for the Republicans. But if Hilary is the nominee there is always hope. She lacks good political instincts and has all the charisma of Nixon in a skirt.

Jay Anderson said...

"But if Hilary is the nominee there is always hope. She lacks good political instincts and has all the charisma of Nixon in a skirt."

Yeah, but Nixon still won twice.

Darwin said...

True, but he wasn't wearing a skirt at the time...

Anonymous said...

True, but he wasn't wearing a skirt at the time...

That's more or less why he lost the 1960 election. He thought wearing makeup was womanly and therefore got clobbered among televised debate viewers.

Donald R. McClarey said...

"Yeah, but Nixon still won twice."

True Jay but let us consider those victories. In 68 the Democrats had basically broken their party over Vietnam. Any Republican should have been won handily. Nixon eked out a miniscule 43.4% to 42.7% win. Wallace took 13.5%. At that point I am doubtful that Nixon would have taken more than slightly half of Wallace's vote if Wallace hadn't been in the race. Southern white Democrats were beginning to switch, but there were still plenty of white New Deal Democrats who weren't ready to vote Republican yet, at least if the Republican hadn't formerly been a five star general.

The man who convinced most white Democrats to switch parties ran as the Democrat standard bearer in 72. George McGovern's suicidal campaign was the greatest act of political self-destruction of either of the two major parties that I have witnessed in my lifetime. Any Republican, including Harold Stassen, would have slaughtered McGovern.

Jay Anderson said...

And the Republicans seem to be re-enacting the Democrat campaign of 1968. Short of a stellar perfomance by Fred Thompson (I think he's the only Republican among the current crop who even stands a chance, sorta like Bobby Kennedy was the only Democrat who stood a chance in 1968), even the Democrat version of Richard Nixon should be able to win in 2008.

Donald R. McClarey said...

"And the Republicans seem to be re-enacting the Democrat campaign of 1968."

That remains to be seen Jay. In 1968 turmoil over Vietnam within the Democrat party helped bring about defeat. The Republican candidates, with the exception of Ron Paul (R. Pluto), all are still quite supportive of the war, although usually critical of the conduct of it by the Bush administration. If the war in Iraq is perceived as a win by next year, 1968 might not be the proper analogy for the Republicans in 2008 but rather for the Democrats. Already moderate Democrats in the House are starting to be nervous as the present progress of the surge indicates that perhaps the Democrats have embraced defeat too readily. 2008 will be a hard year for Republicans just by the nature of the election cycle after holding the Presidency for two terms, but in a war situation the usual political rules are sometimes upset.